Analysis of fishing trend and prediction of fisheries potential based on catch data analyses (case study: the Caspian Sea)

The simple linear model and catch data from Caspian Sea during a decade were used to assess the state of the fishery in this region. Also fishery trends were analysed to determine the catch fluctuation during the period. Fishing potential of the species for the following year was predicted. Catch trend analyses of bony fishes showed incremental or decreasing patterns for different species. However, the mean catch of all species revealed a sustainable trend. The total catch of sturgeons and Kilka has been reduced as well as catch composition. However, Persian sturgeon and common Kilka sprat are the dominant catches of these groups. Hatchery activities and releasing of Persian Sturgeon juveniles into the Caspian Sea and ecological changes after Mnemiopsis leidy entrance seem to be the main reasons for this situation.